President Donald Trump keeps highlighting his most contentious policies as major contributors to the expansion of the American economy. These include tough immigration enforcement, high tariffs, and his flagship legislation, which is currently making headway in the U.S. House following a close Senate vote. Opponents counter that these policies might have the opposite effect, hurting low-income Americans and companies.
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The real-world effects of Trump’s tariff policy and deportation plan are examined in two distinct investigations released by Axios on July 2. These reports present a very different picture from the administration’s.
According to a report by writer Courtenay Brown, a recent analysis by the JPMorganChase Institute reveals that tariffs are costing U.S. mid-sized enterprises an additional $82 billion. Restoring tariff rates to their previous highs during the height of trade tensions may more than double that number.
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Businesses may decide to reduce expenditure elsewhere, maybe through layoffs, as a result of these extra expenses, according to Brown. Chris Wheat, co-author of the report and head of the JPMorganChase Institute, highlighted the strain, saying, “The cost amounts to 3 percent of their payroll — that’s a significant amount just to offset tariff impacts.”
The economic upheaval brought on by Trump’s immigration crackdown is discussed by Emily Peck of Axios in a different piece. The sharp drop in immigration is already having an impact on communities and companies that have historically depended on immigrant labour, she says.
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Peck states, “This is significant because slower production of goods and services results from fewer incoming workers.” “This consequently slows economic growth and drives up wages.”
In an Oxford Economics report, economist Bernard Yaros echoes this worry. He projects that lower immigration will result in a 0.25 percent decline in long-term GDP and a modest increase in inflation for the U.S. economy.
Despite being modest macroeconomically, Yaros warns of more serious repercussions should Trump’s proposed legislation become into law. The law might worsen labour shortages and increase the economic impact, as it includes $175 billion for increased immigration enforcement.
The bill’s significant cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits are another bone of contention for critics, who warn that these changes might endanger millions of Americans who depend on these safety nets for food security and medical treatment.
Economists and business executives continue to voice concerns about the risks to growth and livelihoods, despite the Trump administration’s insistence that these broad policies will eventually boost the economy